57 Appendix 2: Sensitivity analysis Appendices WCC’s Business program. In other words, businesses that hired SUNYWCC Business program students could have substituted some of these workers with equally-qualified people from outside the region had there been no SUNY WCC Business program students to hire. Therefore, we attribute only the remaining 50% of the initial labor income generated by increased alumni productivity to the program. Table A2.2 presents the results of the sensitivity analysis for the labor import effect variable. As explained earlier, the assumption increases and decreases relative to the base case of 50%by the increments indicated in the table. Alumni productivity impacts attributable to SUNY WCC, for example, range from a high of $72.1 million at a -50% variation to a low of $24 million at a +50% variation from the base case assumption. This means that if the labor import effect variable increases, the impact that we claim as attributable to alumni decreases. Even under the most conservative assumptions, the alumni impact on the Westchester County economy still remains sizeable. Student employment variables Student employment variables are difficult to estimate because many students do not report their employment status or because colleges generally do not collect this kind of information. Employment variables include the following: 1) the percentage of students who are employed while enrolled in the program and 2) the percentage of earnings that working students receive relative to the earnings they would have received had they not chosen to attend the college. Both employment variables affect the investment analysis results from the student perspective. Students incur substantial expense by attending SUNY WCC because of the time they spend not gainfully employed. Some of that cost is recaptured if students remain partially (or fully) employed while attending. It is estimated that 77% of students are employed.45 This variable is tested in the sensitivity analysis by changing it first to 100% and then to 0%. The second student employment variable is more difficult to estimate. In this study we estimate that students who are working while enrolled in the Business program at the college earn only 79%, on average, of the earnings that they statistically would have received if not attending SUNYWCC. This suggests that many students hold part-time jobs that accommodate their SUNYWCC attendance, though it is at an additional cost in terms of receiving a wage that is less than what they otherwise might make. The 79% variable is an estimation based on the average hourly wages of the most common jobs held by students while attending college relative to the average hourly wages of all occupations in Westchester County. The model captures this difference in wages 45 SUNY WCC provided data on student employment for non-credit students, and Lightcast provided the estimate of the percentage of employed credit students. Table A2.2: Business program sensitivity analysis of labor import effect variable % variation in assumption -50% -25% -10% Base case 10% 25% 50% Labor import effect variable 25% 38% 45% 50% 55% 63% 75% Alumni impact (millions) $72 $60 $53 $48 $43 $36 $24
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