28 Chapter 3: Methodology reach the region from the program’s alumni in the rest of the state. For more information on the Lightcast MR-SAM model and its data sources, see Appendix 6. Alumni impact analysis In this section, we estimate the economic impacts stemming from the added labor income of SUNYWCC’s Business program alumni in combination with their employers’ added non-labor income. This impact is based on the number of students who have attended SUNY WCC’s Business program throughout its history. We use this total number to consider the impact of those students in the single FY 2021-22. Former students who earned a degree as well as those who may not have finished their degree or did not take courses for credit are considered alumni. While attending SUNYWCC’s Business program, students gain experience, education, and the knowledge, skills, and abilities that increase their productivity and allow them to command a higher wage once they enter the workforce. But the reward of increased productivity does not stop there. Talented professionals make capital more productive too (e.g., buildings, production facilities, equipment¬). The employers of SUNYWCC’s Business program alumni enjoy the fruits of this increased productivity in the form of additional non-labor income (i.e., higher profits). The alumni impact is the result of years of instruction and the associated accumulation of human capital. The initial effect of alumni is comprised of two main components. The first and largest of these is the added labor income of SUNYWCC’s Business program students. The second component of the initial effect is comprised of the added nonlabor income of the businesses that employ SUNY WCC Business program alumni. We begin by estimating the portion of alumni who are employed in the workforce. To estimate the historical employment patterns of alumni in the region, we use the following sets of data or assumptions: 1) settling-in factors to determine how long it takes the average student to settle into a career;19 2) death, retirement, and unemployment rates from the National Center for Health Statistics, the Social Security Administration, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics; and 3) state migration data from the Internal Revenue Service.20 The result is the estimated portion of alumni from each previous year who were still actively employed in the region as of FY 2021-22. The next step is to quantify the skills and human capital that alumni acquired from the Business program at SUNY WCC. We use the students’ production of credit hour equivalents (CHEs) as a proxy for accumulated human capital.21 The average number of CHEs completed per student in FY 2021-22 was 5.6. To estimate the number of CHEs present in the workforce during the analysis year, we use the college’s historical 19 Settling-in factors are used to delay the onset of the benefits to students in order to allow time for them to find employment and settle into their careers. In the absence of hard data, we assume a range between one and three years for students who graduate with a certificate or a degree, and between one and five years for returning students. 20 According to a study performed by Pew Research Center, people who have already moved are more likely to move again than people who do not move. Therefore, migration rates are dampened to account for the idea that if they do not move in the first two years after leaving the college, then they are less likely to migrate out compared to the average person. 21 One CHE is equal to 15 contact hours of classroom instruction per semester.
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