66 Appendix 1: Sensitivity analysis Appendices partially (or fully) employed while attending. It is estimated that 75% of students are employed.38 This variable is tested in the sensitivity analysis by changing it first to 100% and then to 0%. The second student employment variable is more difficult to estimate. In this study we estimate that students who are working while attending the college earn only 79%, on average, of the earnings that they statistically would have received if not attending SUNY WCC. This suggests that many students hold part-time jobs that accommodate their SUNYWCC attendance, though it is at an additional cost in terms of receiving a wage that is less than what they otherwise might make. The 79% variable is an estimation based on the average hourly wages of the most common jobs held by students while attending college relative to the average hourly wages of all occupations in Westchester County. The model captures this difference in wages and counts it as part of the opportunity cost of time. As above, the 79% estimate is tested in the sensitivity analysis by changing it to 100% and then to 0%. The changes generate results summarized in Table A1.3, with A defined as the percent of students employed and B defined as the percent that students earn relative to their full earning potential. Base case results appear in the shaded row; here the assumptions remain unchanged, with A equal to 75% and B equal to 79%. Sensitivity analysis results are shown in non-shaded rows. Scenario 1 increases A to 100%while holding B constant, Scenario 2 increases B to 100%while holding A constant, Scenario 3 increases both A and B to 100%, and Scenario 4 decreases both A and B to 0%. Scenario 1: Increasing the percentage of students employed (A) from 75% to 100%, the net present value, internal rate of return, and benefit-cost ratio improve to $163.1 million, 21.8%, and 6.0, respectively, relative to base case results. Improved results are attributable to a lower opportunity cost of time; all students are employed in this case. Scenario 2: Increasing earnings relative to statistical averages (B) from 79% to 100%, the net present value, internal rate of return, and benefit-cost ratio results 38 Lightcast provided an estimate of the percentage of students employed because SUNY WCC was unable to provide data. This figure excludes dual credit high school students, who are not included in the opportunity cost calculations. Table A1.3: Sensitivity analysis of student employment variables Variations in assumptions Net present value (millions) Internal rate of return Benefit-cost ratio Base case: A = 75%, B = 79% $147.8 16.4% 4.1 Scenario 1: A = 100%, B = 79% $163.1 21.8% 6.0 Scenario 2: A = 75%, B = 100% $160.2 20.5% 5.5 Scenario 3: A = 100%, B = 100% $179.6 36.4% 12.1 Scenario 4: A = 0%, B = 0% $101.9 9.6% 2.1 Note: A = percent of students employed; B = percent earned relative to statistical averages.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTM2NjgzMA==