45 Chapter 3: Investment analysis Not all of these tax revenues may be counted as benefits to the state, however. Some students leave the state during the course of their careers, and the higher earnings they receive as a result of their education leave the state with them. To account for this dynamic, we combine student settlement data from the college with data on migration patterns from the Internal Revenue Service to estimate the number of students who will leave the state workforce over time. We apply another reduction factor to account for the students’ alternative education opportunities. This is the same adjustment that we use in the calculation of the alumni impact in Chapter 2 and is designed to account for the counterfactual scenario where SUNYWCC does not exist. The assumption in this case is that any benefits generated by students who could have received an education even without the college cannot be counted as new benefits to society. For this analysis, we assume an alternative education variable of 15%, meaning that 15% of the student population at the college would have generated benefits anyway even without the college. For more information on the alternative education variable, see Appendix 7. We apply a final adjustment factor to account for the “shutdown point” that nets out benefits that are not directly linked to the state and local government costs of supporting the college. As with the alternative education variable discussed under the alumni impact, the purpose of this adjustment is to account for counterfactual scenarios. In this case, the counterfactual scenario is where state and local government funding for SUNY WCC did not exist and SUNY WCC had to derive the revenue elsewhere. To estimate this shutdown point, we apply a sub-model that simulates the students’ demand curve for education by reducing state and local support to zero and progressively increasing student tuition and fees. As student tuition and fees increase, enrollment declines. For SUNY WCC, the shutdown point adjustment is 0%, meaning that the college could not operate without taxpayer support. As such, no reduction applies. For more information on the theory and methodology behind the estimation of the shutdown point, see Appendix 9. After adjusting for attrition, alternative education opportunities, and the shutdown point, we calculate the present value of the future added tax revenues that occur in the state, equal to $84.1 million. Recall from the discussion of the student return on investment that the present value represents the sum of the future benefits that accrue each year over the course of the time horizon, discounted to current year dollars to account for the time value of money. Given that the stakeholder in this case is the public sector, we use the discount rate of 0.2%. This is the three-year average of the real treasury interest rate reported by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for 30-year investments, and in Appendix 1, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of this discount rate.35 35 Office of Management and Budget. “Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness, Lease Purchase, and Related Analyses.” Real Interest Rates on Treasury Notes and Bonds of Specified Maturities (in Percent). https://www.whitehouse.gov/ wp-content/uploads/2020/12/discount-history.pdf.
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