30 Chapter 2: Economic impacts on the Westchester County economy The other adjustment in Table 2.5 accounts for the importation of labor. Suppose SUNY WCC did not exist and in consequence there were fewer skilled workers in the county. Businesses could still satisfy some of their need for skilled labor by recruiting from outside Westchester County. We refer to this as the labor import effect. Lacking information on its possible magnitude, we assume 50% of the jobs that students fill at county businesses could have been filled by workers recruited from outside the county if the college did not exist.14 Consequently, the gross labor income must be adjusted to account for the importation of this labor, since it would have happened regardless of the presence of the college. We conduct a sensitivity analysis for this assumption in Appendix 1. With the 50% adjustment, the net added labor income added to the economy comes to $197.6 million, as shown in Table 2.5. The $197.6 million in added labor income appears under the initial effect in the labor income column of Table 2.6. To this we add an estimate for initial non-labor income. As discussed earlier in this section, businesses that employ former students of SUNY WCC see higher profits as a result of the increased productivity of their capital assets. To estimate this additional income, we allocate the initial increase in labor income ($197.6 million) to the six-digit NAICS industry sectors where students are most likely to be employed. This allocation entails a process that maps completers in the county to the detailed occupations for which those completers have been trained, and then maps the detailed occupations to the six-digit industry sectors in the MR-SAMmodel.15 Using a crosswalk created by National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we map the breakdown of the college’s completers to the approximately 700 detailed occupations in the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system. Finally, we apply a matrix of wages by industry and by occupation from the MR-SAM model to map the occupational distribution of the $197.6 million in initial labor income effects to the detailed industry sectors in the MR-SAM model.16 14 A similar assumption is used by Walden (2014) in his analysis of the Cooperating Raleigh Colleges. 15 Completer data comes from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), which organizes program completions according to the Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) developed by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). 16 For example, if the MR-SAMmodel indicates that 20% of jobs in SOC 51-4121 (Welders) occur in NAICS 332313 (Plate Work Manufacturing) in the given region, then we allocate 20% of the initial labor income effect under SOC 51-4121 to NAICS 332313. Table 2.6: Alumni impact, FY 2021-22 Labor income (thousands) Non-labor income (thousands) Total income (thousands) Sales (thousands) Jobs supported Initial effect $197,575 $87,704 $285,279 $579,210 2,718 Multiplier effect Direct effect $37,370 $17,953 $55,323 $107,450 520 Indirect effect $13,398 $6,730 $20,128 $38,936 189 Induced effect $71,709 $33,621 $105,329 $223,490 941 Total multiplier effect $122,476 $58,304 $180,780 $369,875 1,649 Total impact (initial + multiplier) $320,052 $146,007 $466,059 $949,086 4,367 Source: Lightcast impact model.
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